US Open: Knocking at the Door of Djokovic/Murray

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

Murray and Djokovic have a rivalry -- a good one -- though they are very good friends and occasional doubles partners. Born just a week apart, the two have similar games. Djokovic leads the head-to-head by about two matches but it really doesn’t matter in a match like the one on Wednesday night. It is not important in a rivalry like this what has happened before. In the big matches it has gone either way. Murray has not had the stellar career his opponent has. Murray does not quite have the champion’s factor that Djokovic has. He is also more susceptible to upsets and can struggle when not on his best. Djokovic is better at winning ugly but, really, both have had great careers though I cannot see Murray getting into the Hall of Fame as things stand.

Mentally Djokovic has a big advantage. He is so so tough mentally. He just never goes away. I think this is the area where there is a huge gulf between Djokovic and Murray. Djokovic can come back from two sets down. No problems. Djokovic is never out till you win on match point. You can bet he won’t miss match point down. The area Murray has the big advantage is in the serve. He just has a much beefier serve, though his second is a weaker delivery. He never had a problem with his serve like Djokovic did. Murray is harder to break.

The forehand and backhand are very similar, though I think Murray’s forehand on top form just shades it. He has worked so hard on that wing. Neither of them is particularly distinguished at the net, but I like the way Murray volleys more. Djokovic has struggled in that department previously. They both have good areas and not so good areas, but the basic model of their games is the same. They have built them on great defense and great movement. This is always the problem when two great counter-punchers play. They have nothing to counter-punch. Murray has the tendency to be both more aggressive and more passive. He seems to slip in and out of passages playing both ways. Going in, I thought there would be long rallies in this match, and plenty of them. First strike tennis will have no place here. This is purely about physicality. This is all about endurance and physicality.

I can’t pick this, but the winner is going to the final.

I am going to be focusing on the two main courts from here on in. I will be looking at the four big matches on yesterday. There were several good matches and one exhibition. I have attempted an analysis so now I will get on with the rest of my report.

ARTHUR ASHE: MONFILS d. DIMITROV
...Monfils won in straights back in 2011 here in New York. It was a very entertaining match. Dimitrov has never beaten the Frenchman before and it is interesting that Monfils seems to do well against those with a one-handed backhand. Monfils, I guess, just has that kind of style that can make one-handers think twice. Dimitrov was unable to find a way through or past him. Monfils won 7-5, 7-6 [6], 7-5 in 145 minutes. It was a tight match from start to finish with some breathtaking rallies. Like this one. Dimitrov hit 31 winners and 38 errors but Monfils managed to be more solid. He went 29-30 with fourteen aces thrown in. Dimitrov broke just once, but his opponent broke three times. Neither of them won more than 35 per cent of receiving points. Incredibly Monfils approached the net just ten times. For Dimitrov and Monfils the second serve win percentage is too low. Both were just under 60 per cent. You want to be winning 65-70 per cent of second serves, ideally. Neither of them was performing on first serves either. Monfils is going to have to step his returning game. His next opponent will exploit any weakness, especially one that glaring. Monfils has Federer. That is going to be entertaining, but how close depends on how consistent Monfils can be.
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ARTHUR ASHE: FEDERER D. BAUTISTA AGUT
...Agut has never been more out of his depth. He has had a career year this year. He has been one of the breakout players. He showed why for some of this match but he was completely out-matched. He longer the match went on, the more apparent that was. Federer played so well. He played like he was teaching somehow how to play tennis. He used his forehand to rip the Spaniard apart. Roger Federer makes his 43rd quarterfinal. He has also been to 35 semifinals. I do not see anybody breaking either of those records. If Federer retired now, Djokovic could only overtake him on both counts in three years. Nadal is further behind because of injury. Really, Federer has achieved some crazy things. Federer won 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in less than two hours. He blasted 36 winners with eight aces thrown in, too. He was broken just once and broke his opponent six times. Federer was majestic throughout. The Spaniard was never given a look in. Federer moved onto a higher plane. Federer headed into the stratosphere those last two sets. Agut kept trying new things because he had to but each time Federer would just trump him. It was as dominant a display as you are likely to see all year on hard courts. That Nadal/Murray semifinal made for painful viewing. Fedex gets Monfils next and if he can cut down those errors by five or ten but keep those other stats then I can only see one winner. I can forgive the five double faults, but Federer does need to not give Monfy any free points.
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LOUIS ARMSTRONG : BERDYCH D. THIEM
...Ouch. This was also pretty devastating, with Thiem managing to win just seven games. Even Agut managed to get nine. Berdych literally ripped right through Thiem as if he was nothing more than smoke and air. Ten aces and 24 winners were somewhat blighted by the 23 errors Berdych hit. He needed just an hour and a half to progress, breaking five times and holding in every single one of his service games. Berdych also won 44 percent of receiving points and made Thiem go for everything. Thiem could not make everything and ended up with 35 errors. He got put through a trial of fire and next time he will be prepared. Next time he will be wary of what lies in wait. Berdych needs to get rid of the errors, but otherwise it was a clean match. Berdych gets Cilic next. Expect a similar match to the one they had at Wimbledon: big serving and big shots in abundance. Berdych and Cilic are going to knock seven bells out of one another. They are both looking for a chance at Federer, one they will both feel they can take.
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LOUIS ARMSTRONG : CILIC D. SIMON
...Simon is steady. He is steady to a point of being boring. I am sure he cannot be French as he plays in such an un-French manner. Simon has somehow developed a big serve somewhere down the line. It seems to not fit with his steady game. Gilles is the ultimate pusher and remains as one of the few players who can really find Federer’s backhand. He is one of those players who just grinds you down with sheer consistency. Robredo does it with style and class. Robredo does it with pizzazz. Simon does it with solidness. Simon does it by being consistent. And that is the most frustrating thing of all. Simon and Cilic played a long, and nigh on unwatchable, match on Armstrong Stadium. In a little under four and a half hours Cilic prevailed 5-7, 7-6 [3], 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 Cilic hit 23 aces to the Frenchman’s 16. Incredibly they each had just three breaks and neither of them returned particularly well. Cilic has to win a few more second serve points if he wants to go further in the tournament. Cilic hit 70 winners but did make 76 errors. Simon opted for the steady approach and hit 45 winners to just 31 errors. In the end, firepower proved to be too much for steadiness. Cilic gets to play Berdman next and I think he has a chance there. Berdych has not yet been properly tested and I don’t know if he is ready to go five long sets. Cilic has got a good chance but he needs o be mentally tough too.
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Any other notes?

* = We’re starting to get to that point in a slam where my sleeping pattern looks like it was knitted by Ray Charles.

* = Federer volleys like a god. McEnroe may say that Nadal has the best volley, but if he had watched the match last night he would agree with me. When Federer volleys he makes angels smile.

* = Djokovic is going to choke. I’m not saying this as a Federer fan. I frankly don’t think Fed will get past Berdych. I just have a feeling Djokovic will choke. He won’t be beaten, but he will lose.

* = The Bryans are back. They surely have the slam now. They are on great form with crowd support.

* = German tennis is finally at ebb. After consistent success it finally looks to be having a recess, though it is likely a temporary one.
I think it would be a full turning of the circle if Britain and Australia both returned to prominence, though Britain has been waiting so much longer.

* = Sveta's first title, in Helsinki, Finland in 2002.



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